Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 474 · LAS → RNO
departs 1:38 PM PT · arrives 3:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±17 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 35 kt forecast at RNO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.