Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4791 · MSY → HOU
departs 8:06 PM CT · arrives 9:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.