Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 4842 · SAN → OAK
departs 1:26 PM PT · arrives 3:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.