Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4926
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4926 · AUS → MSY
departs 2:27 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.