Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 492 · BNA → BDL
departs 1:46 PM CT · arrives 5:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 14%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at BDL that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
BDL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.