Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 506 · SMF → PHX
departs 11:16 AM PT · arrives 2:19 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 21%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.