Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5096
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 5096 · OKC → JAX
departs 1:31 PM CT · arrives 4:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.