Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 513 · LAS → TUS
departs 5:38 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 48%
Mon 11/16 37%
Tue 11/17 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±8 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.