WN 59 · MDW → RDU

departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 9:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MDW that day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.14 in

RDU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 59 · MDW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?