Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 680 · SNA → SMF
departs 12:27 PM PT · arrives 2:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.