Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 748
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 748 · SAN → SBA
departs 12:15 PM PT · arrives 1:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.