Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 764 · PVR → SNA
departs 1:36 PM CST · arrives 2:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 11/11 23%
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PVR (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.