Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 854 · BUF → TPA
departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 10:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 23%
Wed 11/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.