Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 873 · ELP → PHX
departs 2:21 PM MT · arrives 3:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 41%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 34%
Tue 11/17 33%
Wed 11/18 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.