Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 893 · BUR → RNO
departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 12:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 13%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 17%
Mon 11/16 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 41 kt forecast at RNO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
11am departures from BUR are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 41 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.