Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 938
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 938 · BUR → SMF
departs 2:23 PM PT · arrives 3:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 22%
Wed 11/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SMF is quiet at that time
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,933 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.