Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 996 · BWI → DEN
departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.