YX 4386 · RDU → LGA

departs 4:02 PM ET · arrives 5:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4386 · RDU → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?