YX 5820 · LGA → BUF

departs 11:47 AM ET · arrives 1:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.29 in

BUF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5820 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?