9E 5039 · JFK → SRQ

departs 9:11 AM ET · arrives 12:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
29%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ SRQ is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5039 · JFK → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?