AA 1887 · PHL → MCI

took off 10:35 PM ET · expected to land 11:54 PM CT (scheduled 8:02 PM ET → 9:57 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
37%
Over 2 hours late
63%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1887 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?