AA 1939 · PHX → AUS

departs 4:25 PM MT · arrives 7:46 PM CT

Your aircraft is N913NN (B738), coming in as AA 3245 from PSP: landed 3:24 PM MT.

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1939 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?