AA 2043 · PHX → STL

took off 9:00 PM MT · expected to land 12:34 AM CT (scheduled 7:55 PM MT → 12:02 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
77%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2043 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?