Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2214 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 2214 · SNA → PHX

departs 9:50 AM PT · arrives 12:21 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ 9am departures from SNA are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.09 in

PHX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2214 · SNA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?