AA 2233 · DFW → MEX

departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CST

Your aircraft is N890NN (B738), coming in as AA 413 from SAT: landed 3:14 PM CT.

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,429 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2233 · DFW → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?