Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 2531 · PHX → DFW

departs 1:17 PM MT · arrives 4:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2531 · PHX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?