AA 2604 · AUS → ORD

departs 4:59 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Your aircraft is N818AW (A319).

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,971 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2604 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?