Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2685 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 2685 · PHX → XNA

departs 10:48 AM MT · arrives 2:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into XNA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2685 · PHX → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?