Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2702 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 2702 · PHX → SAT

departs 10:47 AM MT · arrives 2:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,133 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2702 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?