AA 298 · PHL → MXP

took off 8:13 PM ET · expected to land 9:11 AM CET (scheduled 8:01 PM ET → 9:47 AM CET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MXP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MXP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MXP (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 298 · PHL → MXP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MXP?