Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3028 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 3028 · ORD → RDU

departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 2:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3028 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?