AA 545 · PHX → PHL

departs 10:42 PM MT · arrives 5:30 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +41 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
15%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 545 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?