AA 754 · PHL → CDG

took off 8:24 PM ET · expected to land 9:10 AM CET (scheduled 7:54 PM ET → 9:02 AM CET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CDG?

LIVE

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CDG (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 754 · PHL → CDG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDG?