Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 832 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14

AA 832 · ORD → LAX

departs 11:43 AM CT · arrives 2:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 832 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?