AA 897 · PHL → LAX

departs 3:54 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM PT

Your aircraft is N473AN (A21N), coming in as AA 2595 from SAN: landed 2:21 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 897 · PHL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?