Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14 Today

AA 9830 · AUS → DFW

departs 7:20 PM CT · arrives 8:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

89% chance · ±0 pts +35 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
8%
15–30 min late
40%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
25%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9830 · AUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?