Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 1449 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, November 14 Today

C5 1449 · SDF → MEM

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 5:53 PM CT

Your aircraft is N780NC (E170), coming in as C5 1549 from AHN: landed 3:41 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

59% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 1449 · SDF → MEM

Odds over time