Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 1464 LANDED 4:01 PM CT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, November 14 Today

C5 1464 · SWO → FSD

took off 2:43 PM CT · landed 4:01 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ C5's recent on-time record

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SWO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

FSD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 1464 · SWO → FSD

Odds over time