Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
DL 1431 · PHX → SLC
departs 2:26 PM MT · arrives 4:12 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 11%
Mon 11/16 14%
Tue 11/17 11%
Wed 11/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.