Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
OO 3954 · SEA → MFR
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 11:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Fri 11/13 24%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 22%
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 167 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into MFR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
MFR (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.1 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.