Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
OO 3999 · DTW → TVC
departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of snow forecast at TVC that day
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
TVC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TVC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.