Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 104 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:32 AM HT, ETA 6:08 PM AEDT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, November 14 Today

QF 104 · HNL → SYD

took off 11:32 AM HT · expected to land 6:08 PM AEDT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SYD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ SYD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

SYD (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 104 · HNL → SYD

Odds over time