SY 8630 · AUS → FAT

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 9:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +50 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
40%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
18%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at FAT that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8630 · AUS → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?