SY 8631 · MEM → SAT

departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 8:58 PM CT

Your aircraft is N831SY (B738).

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

82% chance · ±0 pts +60 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
56%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
19%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8631 · MEM → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?