Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 563 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:11 PM PT, ETA 11:11 PM CST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, November 14 Today

TA 563 · SFO → SAL

took off 3:11 PM PT · expected to land 11:11 PM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SAL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SAL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 563 · SFO → SAL

Odds over time