Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1769 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 1:35 AM ET (3 H 9 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Saturday, November 14 Yesterday

UA 1769 · IAD → PHL

departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1769 · IAD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?