UA 1786 · ORD → PDX

took off 8:39 PM CT · expected to land 10:22 PM PT (scheduled 7:50 PM CT → 10:10 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1786 · ORD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?