UA 2132 · DEN → SMF

took off 9:05 PM MT · expected to land 10:11 PM PT (scheduled 7:37 PM MT → 9:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
68%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2132 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?