UA 2801 · LAX → SMF

took off 8:22 PM PT · landed 9:24 PM PT (scheduled 7:09 PM PT → 8:50 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.20 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2801 · LAX → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?