UA 3761 · ORD → ROA

took off 8:43 PM CT · landed 10:55 PM ET (scheduled 7:43 PM CT → 10:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3761 · ORD → ROA

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROA?